Introduction to Exchange Rates (Cambridge International IGCSE Economics)
Foreign Exchange Rates (Forex)
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6.3.1· Definition of foreign exchange rate The demand for and supply of a currency in the foreign exchange market and the determination of the equilibrium foreign exchange rate.
Foreign Exchange Rates (Forex)
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An exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another e.g. £1 = €1.18
- International currencies are essentially products that can be bought and sold on the foreign exchange market (forex)
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The Central Bank of a country controls the exchange rate system that is used in determining the value of a nation's currency
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Two of the main exchange rate systems are
- A floating exchange rate
- A fixed exchange rate
1. A floating exchange rate system
- Different currencies can be bought and sold, just like any other product
- The forces of demand and supply determine the rate at which one currency exchanges for another
- As with any market, if there is excess demand for the currency on the forex market, then prices rise (the currency appreciates)
- If there is an excess supply of the currency on the forex market, then prices fall (the currency depreciates)
The relationship between the US it appreciates but by supplying their own currency it depreciates
Diagram analysis
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The Euro/US$ market is shown by two market diagrams- one for the USD market on the left and one for the Euro market on the right
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The initial exchange rate equilibrium is found at P1Q1 in both markets
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When Europeans visit the USA, they demand US$ and supply Euros
- The **increased demand for the US$ **shifts the demand curve to the right which results in the value of the $ appreciating from P1 → P2 in the USD market and a new market equilibrium forms at P2Q2
- The increased supply of the Euro shifts the supply curve to the right which results in the value of the Euro depreciating from P1 → P2 and a new market equilibrium forms at P2Q2
2. A fixed exchange rate system
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A system in which the country’s Central Bank intervenes in the currency market to fix (peg) the exchange rate in relation to another currency e.g US$
- When they want their currency to appreciate, they buy it on forex markets using their foreign reserves, thus increasing its demand
- When they want their currency to depreciate, they sell it on forex markets, thus increasing its supply
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Sometimes the peg is at parity e.g. 1 Brunei Dollar = 1 Singapore Dollar
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Often the peg is not at parity e.g. Hong Kong has pegged its currency to the US$ at a rate of HK$ 7.75 = US$ 1
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A revaluation occurs if the Central Bank decides to change the peg and increase the strength of its currency
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A devaluation occurs if the Central Bank decides to change the peg and decrease the strength of its currency
Evaluating Exchange Rate Systems
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6.3.1· Evaluating Exchange Rate Systems
- Each exchange rate system has advantages and disadvantages attached
An Evaluation of a Floating Exchange Rate Mechanism
| Advantages | Disadvantages |
|---|---|
| - Natural fluctuations in the exchange rate based on demand and supply help to maintain stable current account balances - If a currency appreciates, the country's exports fall and imports rise - If a currency depreciates, the country's exports rise and imports fall | - Fluctuations in the exchange rate can create uncertainty for firms, leading to a reduction in investment e.g. if a firm provides a quotation to a foreign buyer based on today's exchange rate, but the exchange rate then appreciates, the domestic firm will not make as much profit as expected |
| - Currency appreciation may allow costs of imported raw materials to decrease which may help lower prices in the economy | - Currency depreciation may cause costs of imported raw materials to increase resulting in cost push inflation |
| - Lower exchange rates (or a depreciating currency) may help to increase economic growth as export sales increase | - Higher exchange rates (or an appreciating currency) may reduce/slow down economic growth as export sales decrease |
| - Government does not need to monitor and maintain a floating exchange rate |
An Evaluation of a Fixed Exchange Rate Mechanism
| Advantages | Disadvantages |
|---|---|
| - Even with an increasing demand for a country's exports, the price of its exports will remain fixed as the currency will not appreciate with more demand - This can boost export sales over time e.g. China did this for many years and its products remained artificially cheap to buy | - In order to maintain the fixed exchange rate, the Central Bank has to regularly intervene in the currency market by buying or selling its own currency - This can be an expensive policy to maintain |
| - Firms (foreign and domestic) benefit as they can agree prices with a high level of certainty as the exchange rate will not fluctuate | - Changing the interest rate can also influence the exchange rate - Changing the interest rate to maintain a fixed exchange rate can have negative consequences on consumption, investment, lending, saving and borrowing |
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